The trading of carbon credits, especially through the “jurisdictional REDD+” model, is the fastest and most effective way for Brazil to obtain resources to conserve and restore the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in the short term. This is according to a study by the Earth Innovation Institute (EII), which found that Brazilian states in the Legal Amazon region have the potential to receive between $10.8 billion and $21.6 billion from forest emissions reductions between 2023 and 2030, based on a credit price ranging from $10 to $20. On average, the states' revenue could be $1.4 billion per year, based on a credit price of $10.

These funds would begin to be delivered as early as 2026, as states regulate their respective carbon credit sales policies. Payments are made based on the verified results of reductions in deforestation and forest degradation.

For comparison, the Amazon Fund — one of the sector’s main funding sources — has attracted $2 billion in investments since its creation in 2008, illustrating the scale of the additional resources that could become available to combat illegal deforestation and strengthen sustainability policies. The resources obtained through “jurisdictional REDD+” in the period 2023-2030 would be equivalent to at least six times this amount, to be allocated by Amazonian states for conservation purposes.

In addition, emissions reductions already verified in 2023 and 2024 and now being converted into credits could now generate $1.7 billion in 2026 at a price of $10/tCO2e, roughly equivalent to the amount already disbursed by the Amazon Fund over 16 years of operation.

With natural resources that position it as a leader in terms of solutions to the climate emergency, Brazil can take the lead in the global carbon market by adopting the innovative “jurisdictional REDD+” model. With the proceeds from carbon credits sales under this system, there will be resources to slow deforestation by 90% by 2030 and by 98% by 2050, moving towards the end of illegal deforestation. This would amount to a net emissions reduction by 2030 equivalent in scale to the collective targets of the 27 of the European Union countries, representing a net reduction of 4 to 5% of global carbon emissions.

Currently, nine states in the country are already developing or structuring “Jurisdictional REDD+” programs: Acre (AC), Amazonas (AM), Goiás (GO), Maranhão (MA), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Pará (PA), Piauí (PI), and Tocantins (TO). The Earth Innovation Institute (EII) supports these processes in six of these states: Acre (AC), Goiás (GO), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Pará (PA), and Tocantins (TO).

"With the ‘jurisdictional REDD+’ system, most of the global climate solution can be achieved over next two decades. It is a short-term solution that gives the world time to successfully complete the energy transition. Only with the significant volume of resources resulting from JREDD+ will Brazil be able, in a short term, to achieve the Paris Agreement targets. The JREDD+ model is the major climate solution for the Amazon Rainforest," adds Daniel Nepstad, Executive Director of EII.

What is “jurisdictional REDD+”? Known as “JREDD+,” this business model generates carbon credits based on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through the reduction of deforestation and forest degradation. In this program, each state is responsible for environmental control and for managing the resources obtained. Reducing deforestation generates internationally certified carbon credits, and the sale of these credits generates revenue for the program's continuity and expansion.

The carbon credit models currently developed in the country are private projects, usually implemented on a local scale on farms, in rural communities, or in conservation units. “Jurisdictional REDD+,” on the other hand, is a state-level program applied throughout the state to control deforestation and forest fires, with economic and financial incentives to promote sustainable agriculture, protect conservation units, and support traditional and Indigenous communities.

The innovations introduced by this new format include the generation of credits based on the conservation results of the JREDD+ program, measured across the territory as a whole rather than being attributed to individual rural properties or communities. The proceeds from the sale of these credits — effectively transferred only after proof of reduced forest emissions — are converted into benefits and shared with those who contribute to these results, according to proposals and recommendations previously received through participatory consultation processes. Thus, the funds are not allocated directly to individuals, but rather invested to public policies aimed at different segments and sectors of society, such as indigenous peoples, quilombolas, traditional communities, family farmers, rural producers, and government entities.