Currently, nine states in the country are already developing or structuring “Jurisdictional REDD+” programs: Acre (AC), Amazonas (AM), Goiás (GO), Maranhão (MA), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Pará (PA), Piauí (PI), and Tocantins (TO). Among this group, the state with the greatest revenue potential is Pará, which could earn US$3.485 billion by 2030, followed by Mato Grosso with US$2 billion. Although Rondônia is not yet developing its JREDD+ project, the state has the potential to raise US$1.7 billion (US$1.728 billion).

The study “The Great Climate Solution of the Amazon Forest and the Carbon Market” by the Earth Innovation Institute (EII) indicates that Brazil could lead the global carbon credit market in the short term. The document was released last Tuesday, the 10th, during the webinar “Amazon Rainforest: the role of states in the carbon market and COP30,” which was attended by experts, government representatives, and civil society organizations.

According to the survey, the Brazilian states that make up the Legal Amazon have the potential to receive between $10.8 billion and $21.6 billion from reductions in forest emissions between 2023 and 2030, based on a price per credit ranging from $10 to $20. On average, the states' revenue could be $1.4 billion per year, based on a credit price of $10.

EII Executive Director Daniel Nepstad explained how carbon credit trading, especially through the “jurisdictional REDD+” model, is the fastest and most effective way for Brazil to obtain resources to conserve and restore the Amazon and Cerrado biomes in the short term. By using these natural resources, Brazil would become a leader in terms of solutions to the climate emergency, taking the lead in the global carbon market by adopting the innovative “jurisdictional REDD+” model.

The Earth Innovation Institute (EII) supports these processes in six of these states: Acre (AC), Goiás (GO), Mato Grosso (MT), Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Pará (PA), and Tocantins (TO). Specific data for each of these states was presented in the webinar.

“With the Jurisdictional REDD+ system, most of the global climate solution can be achieved in the next two decades. It is a short-term solution that gives the world time to bring about the energy transition. Only with the significant volume of resources resulting from JRedd+ will Brazil be able to achieve the Paris Agreement targets in the short term. The JREDD+ model is the great climate solution for the Amazon Rainforest," adds Daniel Nepstad, executive director of EII.

Carbon credit revenues could arrive as early as 2026 

The funds identified by the study would begin to be delivered as early as 2026, as states regulate their respective carbon credit sales policies. These amounts are paid according to the verification of results in reducing deforestation and forest degradation.

To compare the increase in resources that would be available to combat illegal deforestation and increase sustainability policies, the Amazon Fund—one of the main sources in the sector—has attracted US$2 billion in investments since its creation in 2008. The resources obtained through “jurisdictional REDD+” in the period 2023-2030 would be equivalent to at least five times this amount, to be allocated by Amazonian states for conservation purposes.

In addition, verified emissions reductions from 2023 and 2024 that are being converted into credits could now generate US$1.8 billion in 2026 at a price of $10/tCO2e (US$10 per carbon credit), roughly equivalent to the Amazon Fund's disbursements over 16 years of operation.

With the proceeds from the sale of carbon credits in this system, there will be resources to slow deforestation by 90% by 2030 and 98% by 2050, moving towards the end of illegal deforestation. This format would be equivalent to a reduction in net emissions by 2030 of the same size as the targets of the 27 countries of the European Union, with a net reduction of 4 to 5% of global carbon emissions.

What is jurisdictional REDD+? Known as JREDD+, this business model generates carbon credits based on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from reduced deforestation and forest degradation. In this program, each state is responsible for environmental control and managing the resources obtained. Reducing deforestation generates internationally certified carbon credits, and the sale of these credits generates revenue for the program's continuity and expansion.

The carbon credit models currently developed in the country are private projects, usually implemented on a local scale on farms, in rural communities, or in conservation units. “Jurisdictional REDD+,” on the other hand, is a state program applied throughout the state to control deforestation and forest fires, with economic and financial incentives to promote sustainable agriculture, protect conservation units, and support traditional and indigenous communities.

The innovations brought about by this new format include the generation of credits based on the conservation results of the JREDD+ program, measured for the territory as a whole, without individualization by rural property or community. The proceeds from the sale of these credits—effectively transferred only after proof of reduced forest emissions—are converted into benefits and shared with those who contribute to these results, according to proposals and recommendations previously received through participatory consultation processes. Thus, the funds are not allocated directly to individuals, but rather applied to public policies aimed at different segments and sectors of society, such as indigenous peoples, quilombolas, traditional communities, family farmers, rural producers, and government entities.

About the Earth Innovation Institute (EII):

The Earth Innovation Institute (EII) is a non-profit research institute led by Daniel Nepstad, PhD in Forest Ecology from Yale University, who has been working in the Amazon since 1984. Since 2010, EII has been promoting sustainable rural development through innovative approaches to agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, with activities in tropical regions around the world. The Institute provides technical support for low-carbon strategies and jurisdictional REDD+ programs. The goal is to achieve verified emissions reductions in accordance with international standards, supporting jurisdictions in their pursuit of sustainable growth.